No budget

Yesterday I try to surf to find any conference related to real estate call for papers. I found  two , which most interested. One in US organised by two prominent bodies in Real estate, America and Asia Real estate society. On top of that, presenter might have a chance to present his/her paper at University of California Berkeley. Another one is Organize by European Real Estate, which will be held at Stockholm.

For me, both conferences are A+ conference in Real Estate. At first, I think I wanna send them my paper. But.... looking at the flight ticket, pheeww.... I don't think my financial situation permit it. As a PhD student in UPM, I will get sponsorship to present in International Conference but the budget they give just RM 3000. What can I do with RM 3000? It won't even able to cover flights expenses... So, I think I've to be reasonable and ..... just forget it......argggghhhhh.

When to buy?

I don't know. I used to play in the Kuala Lumpur stock Exchange, until I lost a few thousands. uhuk uhuk. After that, I totally lost apetite at stock market. InsyaAllah, i think i want to grab the opportunity of this market condition.

So, my strategy is simple,
1) use excess cash (not even from saving), that mean I 've to wait next year as my financial condition is not permissable right now.

2) I'll only play in the stock market if the KLSE index drop half from it maximum point. The maximum KLSE achieve is early this year, 1200++ . Therefore i will wait it drop until  600 points. Is there any basis of what I'm doing? NOPE. I just want to make sure that what ever i invest, I will get more then 100% gain hahahahahhahahahah. Will it drop to 600 ? I don't know, remember during 1998 Financial crisis, KLSE index drop from 1100++ to 250++ . But I hope it never happen again. Personally I don't think it will drop to 600.May Allah protect it from happening.

Value Investing?

I read from CNN (sorry forgot the exact date and article) about advice given by warren buffet that the time has come to buy stocks as the stock price is cheap or under value.

I really fancy this guy, since my ex MBA lecture Associate Prof. Dr. Rokiah mention his name and investment style in the class. I adore him and even buy his value investing approach. What is value investing? to wrap it up , this strategy is about looking at the undervalue stocks i.e. the real price is much more lower than the market price. To determine real price, Warren will do assessment base on fundamental analyses approach with a medium to long term view. Once the decision has made, he won't sell it regardless of market condition as he sees market as the place of people spreading rumours (lies?) and manipulate the market. Fundamental is what more important then the temporary / short period price volatility. For me, this is in line with Islamic investment approach. You should not gambling but should invest. Sometime (frequently ) people act irrationally and influence by the panic scenario rather then looking at the fundamental of the company. Yeah market change and we have to act quickly. But are we act base on fundamental basis or sentiment?

Back to Warren Buffet advice , that it's a time to buy. Sorry sir, I respect you and adore you, but I don't think now is the right time to buy. Why? Only very few people who really assess fundamental. Majority , even academician behave base on market sentiment. Don't you forget sir, what is technical analyses is base upon? Dow theory..... all factors will be discount on the price movement .... .

Another good article

US confronts possibility of long, deep recession

NEW YORK, Oct 16 - The United States has not endured a deep and prolonged recession in more than a quarter century — enough time for many Americans to forget what one feels like.
But unlike the last two relatively short recessions, this one could be much longer and more severe, potentially bringing with it anxiety and job losses not seen in many years.
“In thinking about recessions, people will naturally think back to the last couple” in the early 1990s and in 2001, said Paul Ashworth, senior US economist at Capital Economics in Toronto. “What they should be looking back at is further.”
That requires dredging up memories of the economic slides in the 1970s, when an Arab oil embargo starved the nation of energy, and the early 1980s, when unemployment and inflation soared.

The last recession — coinciding with the collapse of the tech stock bubble and the terrorist attacks of 2001 — lasted just eight months. It was known more for the slow “jobless” recovery that followed than for the depth of the downturn.
Many economists agree that the nation won’t be so fortunate this time.
“I don’t think we can escape damage to the real economy,” former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said this week in Singapore. “I think we almost inevitably face a considerable recession.”

The Fed’s current chairman, Ben Bernanke, delivered a more measured, but similarly grave assessment to economists, saying the recent financial turmoil “may well lengthen the period of weak economic performance and further increase the risks to growth.”
The signs of stress are starting to show: The US has lost 760,000 jobs since late last year, and retail sales in September plunged 1.2 per cent, the largest drop in three years.
Every recession is driven by its own dynamic and psychology. The current slump started with the collapse in the housing market and got worse with sharp restrictions on credit that pressured consumer spending and businesses.

That is a different environment from 1973, when an oil crisis was the culprit, squeezing US businesses and consumers. In the early 1980s, raging inflation and high interest rates took their toll.

Both periods saw millions of Americans out of work. In 1975, the unemployment rate peaked at 9 per cent. In 1982, it jumped to 10.8 per cent.
Most economists forecast a sharp increase in the number of people who lose their jobs. But they do not see it leading to unemployment on the scale of either the 1970s or 1980s.
The jobless rate is currently at 6.1 per cent, and many economists expect it to rise to about 7 per cent early next year — a level the country has not seen since 1993. Some analysts believe the unemployment rate could eventually climb close to 8 per cent, which hasn’t happened since 1984.

But this recession could begin to feel like those of the past not just because of lost jobs, but because of fear about the future.
In the 1980s, as the nation struggled with inflation and a transition from a manufacturing economy to one based on services, Americans had “a huge amount of uncertainty and anxiety that lingered on for a long period of time,” said Bart Van Ark, chief economist for The Conference Board.

“That element I find comparable to what we’re seeing today, but some of the underlying dynamics are very, very different.”
In 1973, the US economy had been growing for three years and unemployment had dropped to well below 5 per cent.

Then, on Oct 6, Egyptian and Syrian forces launched surprise attacks on Israeli-held territory while Jews were observing Yom Kippur. Arab members of OPEC soon cut off shipments of oil to the US and other countries that supported Israel.

Oil prices rose sharply and forced rationing of tight supplies. Drivers lined up at filling stations on odd or even days depending on the number on their license plates. Some stations ran out of gas.
A recession is typically defined as a period in which the economy shrinks for two quarters in a row. In the 2001 recession, the quarters weren’t even consecutive.
But in the 1970s, the recession stretched on for a year and a half. Nearly 2.2 million people lost their jobs. By the end of 1974, the Dow Jones industrial average had lost more than 40 per cent of its value. At the same time, the nation was focused on the Watergate scandal and the vacuum left by President Richard Nixon’s resignation in August 1974.

The economy began to recover in spring of the next year. But inflation, which had eased as the oil embargo was lifted, spiked again. By 1980, prices were rising at an annual rate of 13.5 per cent.

Anxious about a hostage crisis in Iran and President Jimmy Carter’s administration inability to tame inflation, Americans elected Ronald Reagan president. But it wasn’t at all clear how his plan to increase defense spending would cure the economy’s ills.
Volcker, appointed by Carter to lead the Fed in 1979, took on inflation by sharply raising interest rates. It worked, but made life even more difficult for consumers at a time when the nation was doubtful about its economic future.

“That was the feeling at that time: hopelessness, in terms of how do we get out of this situation,” said Anthony Campagna, author of “The Economy in the Reagan Years.”
The next recession did not come until 1990, as preparations for the Gulf War drove up the price of oil. But the 1.6 million jobs lost was much less severe than in the previous downturn, and this one lasted for just eight months.

When it recovered, the economy staged its longest expansion on record — 10 years of growth. The next recession, in early 2001, was similarly short-lived. The number of people out of work rose sharply, but compared with some past recessions, unemployment rate was relatively mild.
The fact that the last two recessions were so short, the damage relatively limited and the preceding good times so long has helped many people forget the pain of a more severe economic slump.

“We’ve become a little spoiled, actually,” said Todd Knoop, a professor at Iowa’s Cornell College and author of “Modern Financial Macroeconomics: Panics, Crashes and Crises.”
That could make this recession feel particularly intense.
Said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Corp.: “I think no matter how you measure it, this coming recession will be worse than the last one.” - AP

This article just to affirm why alcohol is Haram in Islam

Taken from CNN (retrieved on 16/10/2008
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/diet.fitness/10/14/healthmag.alcohol.brain.shrinkage/index.html

Does drinking alcohol shrink your brain?
Story Highlights

A small decline in brain volume, 2 percent a decade, is a natural part of aging
Researchers hoped to find alcohol protected the brain from age-related shrinkage
Instead, any level of alcohol consumption led to a decline in brain volume
The effect was more pronounced in women than men
Next Article in Health »
By Theresa Tamkins

What's good for the heart may hurt the brain, according to a new study of the effects of alcohol.

According to the study findings, the more alcohol consumed, the smaller the brain volume.

People who drink alcohol -- even the moderate amounts that help prevent heart disease -- have a smaller brain volume than those who do not, according to a study in the Archives of Neurology.
While a certain amount of brain shrinkage is normal with age, greater amounts in some parts of the brain have been linked to dementia.

"Decline in brain volume -- estimated at 2 percent per decade -- is a natural part of aging," says Carol Ann Paul, who conducted the study when she was at the Boston University School of Public Health. She had hoped to find that alcohol might protect against such brain shrinkage.
"However, we did not find the protective effect," says Paul, who is now an instructor in the neuroscience program at Wellesley College. "In fact, any level of alcohol consumption resulted in a decline in brain volume."

In the study, Paul and colleagues looked at 1,839 healthy people with an average age of about 61. The patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain and reported how much they tippled. Health.com: Ten best foods for the heart

Overall, the more alcohol consumed, the smaller the brain volume, with abstainers having a higher brain volume than former drinkers, light drinkers (one to seven drinks per week), moderate drinkers (eight to 14 drinks per week), and heavy drinkers (14 or more drinks per week).

Men were more likely to be heavy drinkers than women. But the link between brain volume and alcohol wasn't as strong in men. For men, only those who were heavy drinkers had a smaller brain volume than those who consumed little or no alcohol.

In women, even moderate drinkers had a smaller brain volume than abstainers or former drinkers. Health.com: Six reasons why a little glass of wine each day may do you good
It's not clear why even modest amounts of alcohol may shrink the brain, although alcohol is "known to dehydrate tissues, and constant dehydration can have negative effects on any sensitive tissue," says Paul.

"We always knew that alcohol at higher dosages results in shrinking of the brain and cognitive deficit," says Dr. Petros Levounis, M.D., director of the Addiction Institute of New York at St. Luke's -- Roosevelt Hospital Center, who was not involved in the study. "What is new with this article is that it shows brain shrinking at lower doses of alcohol." Health.com: Type 2 diabetes and alcohol: Proceed with caution

However, the study did not demonstrate that the smaller brain volume actually impaired memory or mental function, notes James Garbutt, M.D., professor of psychiatry at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

And the differences between brain volumes in drinkers and nondrinkers were quite small -- less than 1.5 percent between abstainers and heavy drinkers.
Health Library

MayoClinic.com: Alcoholism

"We're talking very small differences here," says Dr. Garbutt, who was not involved in the study. "We're not seeing 10 to 20 percent shrinkage."
However, he says, reduction in brain mass is an interesting finding. "But we have a long way to go to figure out the implications of it."

words , carefull with your words

I just wanna share with you with my experience on what happen two nights before Raya. I was very frustrated with one old uncle. He wear a very smart and expensive T shirt and pant. His attire and car (mercedes = compressor) shows that he is somebody and very rich guy. I was at one clinic in Kota Bharu to take some medicine for my children who caught with flu and fever. So I asked my wife to go to the clinic while i'm waiting in my car. I know that i should park my car inside the parking space, but I hesitate to park at the parking space as it was too small and I'm afraid that i may scratch other people cars. So, I let that old uncle to park his car on that empty space. He went to the same clinic and guess what? My wife have too wait nearly twenty minutes to get the medicine, but not for this uncle, he just go and have first class treatment and no need for him to que to get his medicine (he use same tactic = don't want to see doctor as it take time and on top of that we have to pay consultancy fee). Less than 10 minutes i guess (or maybe just 5 minutes?) he got what he need.

Now, he reversed his car, I don't know what happen to me (may be because of my head spinning) i didn't react properly. My car wasn't blocked his way, but may block his view of coming cars. He horned me several times. But as I mention, my headache really slowing my reactioned. He came out from his car. At first he carefully choose proper words to request me to reversed. Out of shocked, I reply I'm afraid that if I reversed I may bang another car at my back (but still at a very soft tone). Suddenly, he drastically change his tone, he use harsh and vulgar words, ........ idiot.... stupid.... etc. I did'nt respond just saying enough (still using soft tone) and reversed my car.

I think, he might change his approach because he saw whom he dealing with. A guy, who is young, skinny, physically and mentally weak. This guy is nobody, driving a cheap car (just Proton Waja). I really felt insulted. I don't think that i deserve to be treated like this. I really angry and I really intend to say " Pakcik, it's very nice if you use a proper words that match with your age". But if I really utter this words.... maybe I'm not be able to write in this blog hehehhehehe (being hospitalised)

But, this incident really give me a lesson. If (Allah will), I will be somebody one day, I must remember this incident and ensure that I would not behave like that old uncle.

hehehehe well said article

Despite pressure, Malaysia refused outside aid to fix its ailing economy

OCT 12 - As more countries become enveloped by the financial pandemic that began in the United States, some in the Southeast Asian nation of Malaysia are warily watching the events with a dose of schadenfreude.
After all, it was just a decade ago that the commodities-rich exporter was lambasted for ignoring the blueprint world leaders and the International Monetary Fund had urged.
Instead of taking tens of billions of dollars in aid from the IMF, Malaysia did what was viewed then as a radical move: it self-prescribed its recovery. It stopped outflows of capital for one year, stabilized its volatile currency rate by fixing it to the US dollar and refused to rein in spending."We were criticized by everybody but we believed strongly we only had the people of Malaysia to answer to," said former Finance Minister Tun Daim Zainuddin yesterday in a phone interview from Kuala Lumpur. "We had seen what had happened with African nations that had taken aid from the IMF; they never are freed."
Malaysia defied the prevailing orthodoxy of the day and closed its doors to outside aid even as Asian financial markets, including its own, were collapsing. It also took over the toxic debts of its banks, banned short-selling of stocks and lowered interest rates - moves US regulators have implemented here in the last month to stave off a credit market meltdown.
Months after Malaysia implemented its rescue plan, markets rebounded and the economy grew.
As world financial leaders gather in Washington this weekend to discuss the global financial crisis, there continues to be debate over whether Malaysia's approach worked or if its recovery was simply luck.
South Korea and Thailand were strengthened under strict controls by the IMF. Even Daim credits part of Malaysia's turnaround to the country's ability to export oil, electronics and textiles.
But most economists agree that at the very least the plan did not sink the economy into further depths.
"It's very difficult, even with the benefit of hindsight to say the Malaysian controls were effective because they closed the stable doors after the horses had bolted," said K.S. Jomo, an economist now serving as secretary general for economic development at the United Nations.
As US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. announced yesterday that the government would be willing to take equity stake in some banks, some questioned whether there's a double standard for western nations and everyone else.
"I remember how well we were told never to bail out failing companies…better still they should be sold at fire-sale prices to American investors," former Malaysian prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed wrote last week in his personal blog.
Malaysia's unique history in the emerging markets financial crisis of the late 1990s began after Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea all agreed to deregulate their financial institutions to attract more foreign capital, raise interest rates and tighten fiscal budgets - remedies prescribed by the IMF.
Those fears also hit Malaysia, where the stock market index fell from 900 in 1997 to 200 in 1998, and the currency dropped by about 40% in a year.
The pressure was intense for Malaysia to follow suit. At the urging of then IMF director Michel Camdessus, French President Jacques Chirac met with Mahathir and Daim to try to convince them to take aid from the IMF and restructure its policies, according to Daim.
"It was clear that what the IMF was doing in Asia was trying to save Wall Street, which is what the Paulson plan is doing now, and the Malaysians were saying no way," said Joseph Stiglitz, former chief economist for the World Bank and Nobel prize recipient in economics.
Malaysian leaders ignored international pleas. The nation took over the bad debts of its 35 banks, consolidated them into 10 banks, and recapitalized them by loaning them money at low interest rates. Malaysia lowered its key interest rate from 9.5% to 8%.
"This was very important to restore confidence in the market," Daim said.
For small and medium-sized companies, the government provided low-interest loans.
The international community balked over Malaysia's grip on capital flows and refusal to tighten fiscal spending.
Then US Treasury secretary Robert Rubin said Malaysia's strategy "concerns me very deeply . . . the global economy has benefited enormously from both trade liberalization and the flows of capital that have taken place over the last 10 or 15 years."
The IMF warned in its October 1998 World Economic Outlooks report that Malaysia's plan "may also turn out to be an important setback not only to that country's recovery and potentially to its future development, but also to other emerging market economies that have suffered fromheightened investor fear of similar actions elsewhere."
Yet in one year, the economy stopped its downward spiral and began to rebound. In 1999, gross domestic product rose 5.8% compared with a contraction of 7.4% in 1998.
Retired from government service, Daim said the United States' failure started with its decision to let Lehman Brothers go bankrupt.
"That was the critical piece that set the dominos falling," he said. "They needed to bring back confidence two weeks ago." - The Washington Post

greedy & speculation =mother of all evil

All economic turmoil, since the great depressions, even before the birth of Isa a.s. (a.k.a. jesus) could be attribute to the greedy and speculation. Greedy will make people insane and to certain extend they willing to sacrifice everything; dignity, religion, belief, families for the sake of achieving their target. This machivelism ( end justify the means ) act sometimes bring suffer not just to other people but also to oneself. Speculator, sometimes create speculation, unlogical, baseless or excessive prediction (not forecasting) and to certain extend spread rumours to take advantage of naive investors. This will bring a snowball effect and creating bubble. All fundamentals will be put aside. What is more important is how well you predict the market sentiments. Forward, Futures, Options and other types of financial instruments has been manipulated to create so called profit. Sometimes you do not need cash to get profit (short sell). When the bubble burst......... not just the market participants suffer, but also all the people around the four corner of the earth will suffer. ...... That's why Islam prohibit speculation.....